Global Update Piece – Written on 31 July 2020

Yesterday, Donald Trump suggested that the U.S election needed postponing. Apparent fraud and inaccurate results could, according to the President, blight the 2020 election. Throw into the mix some of the dire economic announcements released recently and it is clear that, something that we have cautioned since March, markets could be volatile moving in to the end of 2020. We do maintain that there are returns to be made as the pandemic has presented key opportunities for investments.

What fuels this belief?

• The FED is willing to extend its support for financial markets and the economy. Whilst policy remains supportive, it seems to have given a floor to risk assets since that few could have predicted. On Wednesday, the FED voted to keep interest rates at 0 and said it was willing to keep them there for as long as necessary.[1]
• Linked to the central bank policy is the lending that has occurred from private banks. Bounce back loans for struggling business’ have created liquidity that was otherwise missing in the recession of 08/09. Banks have been in a position to lend whereas it was quite the opposite in the credit crunch. Couple with this is the large fiscal stimulus packages promised by the Boris Johnson and his political counterparts across the globe. This policy commitment and liquidity is driving markets and will continue to do so.
• The FAANG stocks are continuing to prove that it is possible to grow earnings as the online economy takes off in response to the pandemic. There is opportunity within this pandemic, in the right companies. Investments into these are there to be taken advantage of. Just look at the performance of KODAK this week due to a move into manufacturing a COVID drug.

But there are risks …

Clearly, the above needs to be tempered with the risks that are present. Every flash of news regarding economies around the globe points to the dire effects that the pandemic is having. The risk of policy makers becoming constrained by the level of debt or political concerns being raised over the amount of spending are key. Coupled with this is the potential of programmes such as the furlough scheme beginning to run off, causing unemployment to rise sharply. A second wave could prolong the recovery. Vaccines could provide false hope and then significant disappointment.

We will continue to monitor portfolios on a rigorous basis.

Written by Greenfields Financial Management Ltd.

This article is for information only and should not be treated as advice. No action should be taken in respect of this article without independent financial advice. This information represents the opinion of Greenfields Financial Management Ltd. only.

References

[1] BBC article ‘Federal Reserve warns of continuing need to protect US economy’. Link found here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53581937